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Why a rating matters
A credit rating is how Wall Street grades the state's ability to pay back what it borrows. A lower grade means higher interest on every road, school and building the state finances, paid by taxpayers for decades. It tells you whether Illinois government can pay its bills. It doesn't tell you whether you can pay yours.
The way down
- 2009
The state's general obligation rating falls out of the AA category. Source: Bond Buyer.
- 2015
Moody's cuts Illinois to Baa1 and S&P to BBB+ in October, as the budget standoff begins. Source: Civic Federation.
- 2017
June 1: S&P BBB- and Moody's Baa3, one notch above junk, the lowest ever for a U.S. state. Unpaid bills peak at $16.7 billion in November. Source: Pensions & Investments; State bond disclosure.
- 2020
During COVID, Fitch cuts Illinois to BBB-, and all three agencies have the state one notch above junk. Source: Bond Buyer.
From 2003 to 2020 Illinois took 26 general obligation downgrades by one count; the governor's office counts 24 over 15 years. Counts differ by method. Source: Illinois budget impasse; Governor's office.
The way back
| Date | Agency | Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2021 | Moody's | Baa3 to Baa2 (first upgrade in 21 years) | Civic Federation |
| July 2021 | S&P | BBB- to BBB | Chicago Sun-Times |
| April 21, 2022 | Moody's | Baa2 to Baa1 | WSIU |
| May 5, 2022 | Fitch | BBB- to BBB+ (two notches) | Bond Buyer |
| May 6, 2022 | S&P | BBB to BBB+ | Capitol News Illinois |
| Feb 23, 2023 | S&P | BBB+ to A- | WGLT |
| March 2023 | Moody's | Baa1 to A3 | Capitol News Illinois |
| Nov 7, 2023 | Fitch | BBB+ to A- | Governor's office |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Moody's | A3 to A2 | Governor's office |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Moody's | A2 to A1 | Capitol News Illinois |
| Sept 2026 | S&P | A- to A | Capitol News Illinois |
Eleven rating actions, twelve notches (Fitch's 2022 move was two notches at once).
What the agencies credit
Eight balanced budgets in a row, the old unpaid-bill backlog paid off, a rainy-day fund of about $2.5 billion, and about $11 billion less outstanding debt since FY2022. Source: State bond disclosure, Sept 2026.
What they still flag
Unfunded pensions, constitutional limits on changing pension benefits and taxes, and slower-than-average growth (Moody's); federal Medicaid and SNAP changes (S&P); pension underfunding and long-term liabilities above peers (Fitch). Source: Capitol News Illinois; Capitol News Illinois; Bond Buyer.
The upgrades are real, and paying the state's bills on time earned them. Illinois is still the lowest-rated state with Moody's and S&P.
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